As the nature of Japanese language allows significant amounts of information to be shared in a tweet using 140 letters, there has been an active discussion going on regarding the thyroid examination results on Twitter. When the results are released by Fukushima Medical University, citizen scientists--some professionals and some concerned citizens--would closely examine and analyze them.
Some say it is all due to the screening effect, having nothing to do with radiation exposure, and they claim the thyroid examination is causing more harm by unearthing cancer that might have laid dormant until much later in life. Some go to the other extreme to claim all the cancer cases could be due to radiation exposure. And there are those who are somewhere in-between, calling for a careful data collection and analysis so as not to miss any cases which might potentially be related to radiation exposure.
Two of the Twitter users actively involved in the discussion, @pririn and @iPatrioticmom, analyzed the latest Fukushima thyroid ultrasound examination results, released n August 24, 2014. Rather than claiming definite radiation health effects, which at this point is difficult to do, they simply want to point out the need for proper analyses of data from the first round of examination. They admit that this analysis is not by any means a final one and that the data is not age adjusted.
The translation was assisted by @sitesirius and @niigatamama.
Original analysis in an Excel file: Japanese and English.
Tab 1: Regional distribution of confirmed and suspected thyroid cancer cases in
Fukushima Prefecture
Based on Table 8 of "Thyroid Examination (Initial Screening)" provisional results
FY2011 target municipalities | |
FY2012 target municipalities | |
FY2013 target municipalities |
No. | City, Town, Village | Number of primary examination participants | Number of confirmed or suspected cancer | Proportion of confirmed or suspected cancer | Incidence per 100,000 | |
1 | Minamisoma | 南相馬市 | 10789 | 2 | 0.02% | 19 |
2 | Date | 伊達市 | 10606 | 2 | 0.02% | 19 |
3 | Tamura | 田村市 | 6327 | 3 | 0.05% | 47 |
4 | Kawamata | 川俣町 | 2221 | 2 | 0.09% | 90 |
5 | Namie | 浪江町 | 3249 | 2 | 0.06% | 62 |
6 | Hirono | 広野町 | 838 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
7 | Naraha | 楢葉町 | 1153 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
8 | Tomioka | 富岡町 | 2302 | 1 | 0.04% | 43 |
9 | Okuma | 大熊町 | 1973 | 1 | 0.05% | 51 |
10 | Futaba | 双葉町 | 949 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
11 | Iitate | 飯舘村 | 943 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
12 | Kawauchi | 川内村 | 280 | 1 | 0.36% | 357 |
13 | Katsurao | 葛尾村 | 183 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 41813 | 14 | 0.03% | 33.5 | |
14 | Fukushima | 福島市 | 47336 | 12 | 0.03% | 25 |
15 | Koori | 桑折町 | 1857 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
16 | Kunimi | 国見町 | 1429 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 50622 | 12 | 0.02% | 23.7 | |
17 | Nihonmatsu | 二本松市 | 8846 | 5 | 0.06% | 57 |
18 | Motomiya | 本宮市 | 5233 | 3 | 0.06% | 57 |
19 | Koriyama | 郡山市 | 53962 | 23 | 0.04% | 43 |
20 | Shirakawa | 白河市 | 10805 | 6 | 0.06% | 56 |
21 | Miharu | 三春町 | 2717 | 1 | 0.04% | 37 |
22 | Otama | 大玉村 | 1372 | 2 | 0.15% | 146 |
23 | Ten-ei | 天栄村 | 878 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
24 | Nishigo | 西郷村 | 3618 | 1 | 0.03% | 28 |
25 | Izumizaki | 泉崎村 | 1156 | 1 | 0.09% | 87 |
Subtotal | 計 | 88587 | 42 | 0.05% | 47.4 | |
26 | Soma | 相馬市 | 5046 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
27 | Shinchi | 新地町 | 1105 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 6151 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | |
28 | Iwaki | いわき市 | 47759 | 19 | 0.04% | 40 |
Subtotal | 計 | 47759 | 19 | 0.04% | 39.8 | |
29 | Sukagawa | 須賀川市 | 11532 | 4 | 0.04% | 35 |
30 | Kagamiishi | 鏡石町 | 1947 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
31 | Yabuki | 矢吹町 | 2452 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
32 | Ishikawa | 石川町 | 2078 | 1 | 0.05% | 48 |
33 | Yamatsuri | 矢祭町 | 774 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
34 | Asakawa | 浅川町 | 1067 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
35 | Tanagura | 棚倉町 | 2256 | 1 | 0.04% | 44 |
36 | Hanawa | 塙町 | 1210 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
37 | Ono | 小野町 | 1317 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
38 | Furudono | 古殿町 | 790 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
39 | Nakajima | 中島村 | 801 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
40 | Hirata | 平田村 | 824 | 1 | 0.12% | 121 |
41 | Samegawa | 鮫川村 | 503 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
42 | Tamakawa | 玉川村 | 984 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 28535 | 7 | 0.03% | 24.5 | |
43 | Kitakata | 喜多方市 | 5710 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
44 | Aizuwakamatsu | 会津若松市 | 14632 | 5 | 0.03% | 34 |
45 | Minamiaizu | 南会津町 | 1803 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
46 | Kaneyama | 金山町 | 136 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
47 | Mishima | 三島町 | 129 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
48 | Shimogo | 下郷町 | 688 | 1 | 0.15% | 145 |
49 | Nishiaizu | 西会津町 | 638 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
50 | Tadami | 只見町 | 492 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
51 | Inawashiro | 猪苗代町 | 1871 | 1 | 0.05% | 53 |
52 | Bandai | 磐梯町 | 413 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
53 | Aizumisato | 会津美里町 | 2547 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
54 | Aizubange | 会津坂下町 | 2074 | 1 | 0.05% | 48 |
55 | Yanaizu | 柳津町 | 375 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
56 | Hinoemata | 檜枝岐村 | 61 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
57 | Showa | 昭和村 | 101 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
58 | Kitashiobara | 北塩原村 | 382 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
59 | Yugawa | 湯川村 | 507 | 1 | 0.20% | 197 |
Subtotal | 計 | 32559 | 9 | 0.03% | 27.6 |
■ Incidence rate in adjacent municipalities, grouped together so each group consists of about 10,000 to 20,000 primary examination participants (age group is not controlled)
(Groups are shown in gradations of the color--blue, yellow, or green--assigned to each fiscal year's target municipalities in the table above).
■ Regional differences--up to 5 times between the FY2012 and FY2013 target municipality groups as shown below:
FY2012 Nihonmatsu, Motomiya and Otama, 64.7 per 100,000 (shown in red)
FY2013 Northern Hamadori and Southern Nakadori, 13.0 per 100,000 (shown in green--top and bottom of the map)
*****
Shown below is the same table as above, except with each fiscal year's target municipalities color-coded according to the map immediately below. Names of the municipalities are shown in English and numbers are assigned corresponding to the numbers shown in the leftmost column.
FY2011 target municipalities | |
FY2012 target municipalities | |
FY2013 target municipalities |
No. | City, Town, Village | Number of primary examination participants | Number of confirmed or suspected cancer | Proportion of confirmed or suspected cancer | Incidence per 100,000 | |
1 | Minamisoma | 南相馬市 | 10789 | 2 | 0.02% | 19 |
2 | Date | 伊達市 | 10606 | 2 | 0.02% | 19 |
3 | Tamura | 田村市 | 6327 | 3 | 0.05% | 47 |
4 | Kawamata | 川俣町 | 2221 | 2 | 0.09% | 90 |
5 | Namie | 浪江町 | 3249 | 2 | 0.06% | 62 |
6 | Hirono | 広野町 | 838 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
7 | Naraha | 楢葉町 | 1153 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
8 | Tomioka | 富岡町 | 2302 | 1 | 0.04% | 43 |
9 | Okuma | 大熊町 | 1973 | 1 | 0.05% | 51 |
10 | Futaba | 双葉町 | 949 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
11 | Iitate | 飯舘村 | 943 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
12 | Kawauchi | 川内村 | 280 | 1 | 0.36% | 357 |
13 | Katsurao | 葛尾村 | 183 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 41813 | 14 | 0.03% | 33.5 | |
14 | Fukushima | 福島市 | 47336 | 12 | 0.03% | 25 |
15 | Koori | 桑折町 | 1857 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
16 | Kunimi | 国見町 | 1429 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 50622 | 12 | 0.02% | 23.7 | |
17 | Nihonmatsu | 二本松市 | 8846 | 5 | 0.06% | 57 |
18 | Motomiya | 本宮市 | 5233 | 3 | 0.06% | 57 |
19 | Koriyama | 郡山市 | 53962 | 23 | 0.04% | 43 |
20 | Shirakawa | 白河市 | 10805 | 6 | 0.06% | 56 |
21 | Miharu | 三春町 | 2717 | 1 | 0.04% | 37 |
22 | Otama | 大玉村 | 1372 | 2 | 0.15% | 146 |
23 | Ten-ei | 天栄村 | 878 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
24 | Nishigo | 西郷村 | 3618 | 1 | 0.03% | 28 |
25 | Izumizaki | 泉崎村 | 1156 | 1 | 0.09% | 87 |
Subtotal | 計 | 88587 | 42 | 0.05% | 47.4 | |
26 | Soma | 相馬市 | 5046 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
27 | Shinchi | 新地町 | 1105 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 6151 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | |
28 | Iwaki | いわき市 | 47759 | 19 | 0.04% | 40 |
Subtotal | 計 | 47759 | 19 | 0.04% | 39.8 | |
29 | Sukagawa | 須賀川市 | 11532 | 4 | 0.04% | 35 |
30 | Kagamiishi | 鏡石町 | 1947 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
31 | Yabuki | 矢吹町 | 2452 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
32 | Ishikawa | 石川町 | 2078 | 1 | 0.05% | 48 |
33 | Yamatsuri | 矢祭町 | 774 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
34 | Asakawa | 浅川町 | 1067 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
35 | Tanagura | 棚倉町 | 2256 | 1 | 0.04% | 44 |
36 | Hanawa | 塙町 | 1210 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
37 | Ono | 小野町 | 1317 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
38 | Furudono | 古殿町 | 790 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
39 | Nakajima | 中島村 | 801 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
40 | Hirata | 平田村 | 824 | 1 | 0.12% | 121 |
41 | Samegawa | 鮫川村 | 503 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
42 | Tamakawa | 玉川村 | 984 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
Subtotal | 計 | 28535 | 7 | 0.03% | 24.5 | |
43 | Kitakata | 喜多方市 | 5710 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
44 | Aizuwakamatsu | 会津若松市 | 14632 | 5 | 0.03% | 34 |
45 | Minamiaizu | 南会津町 | 1803 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
46 | Kaneyama | 金山町 | 136 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
47 | Mishima | 三島町 | 129 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
48 | Shimogo | 下郷町 | 688 | 1 | 0.15% | 145 |
49 | Nishiaizu | 西会津町 | 638 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
50 | Tadami | 只見町 | 492 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
51 | Inawashiro | 猪苗代町 | 1871 | 1 | 0.05% | 53 |
52 | Bandai | 磐梯町 | 413 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
53 | Aizumisato | 会津美里町 | 2547 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
54 | Aizubange | 会津坂下町 | 2074 | 1 | 0.05% | 48 |
55 | Yanaizu | 柳津町 | 375 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
56 | Hinoemata | 檜枝岐村 | 61 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
57 | Showa | 昭和村 | 101 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
58 | Kitashiobara | 北塩原村 | 382 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 |
59 | Yugawa | 湯川村 | 507 | 1 | 0.20% | 197 |
Subtotal | 計 | 32559 | 9 | 0.03% | 27.6 |
Tab 2: Incidence by municipality and March 15th plume
■ Incidence rate of each municipality and plume flow on March 15, 2011 analyzed by JAEA
Incidence rate per 100,000 (in red) in municipalities with more than 1,000 primary examination participants, superimposed on maps showing contaminated regions due to the March 15-16 radioactive plume, analyzed by JAEA
Sources:
① Table 8 of "Thyroid Examination (Initial Screening) provisional results"
② "Formation of contaminated areas from the morning of March 15 to the afternoon of March 16" on page 16 of "Diffusion of Radioactive Iodine in the Environment: Based on the Model Calculation Results" by Masamichi Kayano, JAEA"
<Plume flow 1: March 15, 2011 from 6:00 am to 3:00 pm>
<Plume flow 2: March 15, 2011 from 3:00 pm to 9:00 pm>
<Plume flow 3: From 9:00 pm on March 15 to 6.00 am on March 16>
<Plume flow 1 to 3>
<Plume flow 1: March 15, 2011 from 6:00 am to 3:00 pm>
<Plume flow 2: March 15, 2011 from 3:00 pm to 9:00 pm>
<Plume flow 3: From 9:00 pm on March 15 to 6.00 am on March 16>
Tab 3: Incidence by municipality and soil contamination
■ Incidence rate of each municipality and soil contamination
Incidence rate per 100,000 (in red) in municipalities with more than 1,000 primary examination participants, superimposed on a map of radioactive cesium concentration in agricultural land
Source: The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare document, based on the radionuclide concentration distribution map in the agricultural land by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (in Japanese)
Source: Elaboration of Iodine 131 Soil Concentration Map Through Determination of Iodine 129 (in Japanese)
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