Skip to main content

Shunichi Yamashita's Graph Alteration

At the Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection & Measurements (NCRP) held in Bethesda, Maryland, on March 11, 2013, Shunichi Yamashita, the Radiation Risk Management Advisor for Fukushima Prefecture and then vice president of Fukushima Medical University, gave a keynote address.

Yamashita's keynote address video
Yamashita's keynote address PowerPoint presentation PDF

His PowerPoint presentation included a version of a graph from the 2005 study by Cardis et al., Risk of Thyroid Cancer After Exposure to 131I in Childhood, linked here Yamashita was one of the co-authors of the study, and the graph he referred to is "Fig. 2 Comparison of odds ratios (ORs) predicted by the best-fitting risk models with categorical odds ratios estimated in 11 dose categories," on page 729.

On page 727 of the Cardis study, it is stated:
"Figure 2 shows the variation in odds ratios as a function of dose level. A strong dose-response relationship was observed (P<.001); the odds ratio appeared to increase linearly with dose up to 1.5-2 Gy and then to plateau at higher doses. Statistically significant increases in risk were associated with all radiation dose categories greater than 0.2 Gy.
The statistical models that best describe these data are the linear excess relative risk model up to 1 Gy, the linear excess relative risk model up to 2 Gy, and the linear-quadratic excess relative risk model over the entire dose range. As shown in Fig. 2, however, the latter model tended to underestimate risks up to 2 Gy. "

Here's Yamashita's version, which is slide 12 of his PowerPoint presentation titled "Risk of Childhood Thyroid Cancer around Chernobyl."


Here's the original Cardis version:


It appears that he omitted the curve 1, the ERR model - linear-quadratic dose-response model over the entire dose range, which was considered one of the best-fit models. Is it because it "tended to underestimate risks up to 2 Gy"?

The videotape of Yamashita's keynote address revealed the following statement (sic) associated with this slide:
"According to other joint project on the case control studies, it's also clearly shown the increase of thyroid cancer by in dose-responsibly by radioactive iodine.   These data also reconfirmed by United States and Belarus and United States-Ukranian cohort project recently. This is really important to understand the dose-responsiveness of how much they received thyroid dosing."

Apparently he used the slide to show the dose-response of thyroid cancer risk.

Alfred Korblein, a physicist from Germany who has analyzed post-Chernobyl and post-Fukushima birth and mortality data, plotted the data points from Yamashita's graph as well as the original Cardis version, as shown below.


A question remains unanswered as to the reason behind Yamashita's decision to leave out the curve 1. In addition, a question arises as to if it's appropriate for him to cite the original study, as he did in the slide, when the graph has been "altered" by him.

Is this ethical as a researcher?

A consensus by a group of international researchers was that it probably wasn't. Cardis was contacted with the above information multiple times, but she never responded.

When asked what he thought of Yamashita's action of making his own graph yet citing the Cardis study as a source, Korblein said, "I would call it deception or fraud."



Popular posts from this blog

Fukushima Thyroid Examination Fact Sheet: September 2017 (Long Version)

Fukushima Thyroid Examination Fact Sheet:  September 2017
✴Copying or re-posting part or whole of this post is not permitted. Please link to this post instead.

Corrections on July 24, 2018: 
Paragraph 5 in "4. Geographic distribution" in section "Official stance on radiation effects."
"...a clear regional difference of thyroid cancer occurrence (per million) in the second round results: 49.2, 25.7, 19.6 and 15.5 in the evacuation zone, Hamadori, Nakadori, and Aizu, respectively." was corrected (correction shown in red) to "...a clear regional difference of thyroid cancer occurrence (per 100,000) in the second round results: 49.2, 25.7, 19.6 and 15.5 in the evacuation zone, Nakadori, Hamadori, and Aizu, respectively."

Note: Corrections were made in the following paragraphs in pink color on October 17, 2017.
Second paragraph in section "Screening protocol"
First paragraph in section "Thyroid cancer cases"
First paragraph in section &qu…

Mako Oshidori in Düsseldorf "The Hidden Truth about Fukushima"

On March 8th, 2014, comedienne/journalist Mako Oshidori gave a lecture, "The Hidden Truth About Fukushima" in Düsseldorf, Germany, organized by a citizen's group, SAYONARA Genpatsu Düsseldorf. Translation of Mako Oshidori's March 6th, 2014 press conference at the German IPPNW (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War) Symposium in Frankfurt can be found here.
The lecture, given in Japanese with German interpretation, was transcribed and translated into English.

Moderator: Good evening everyone. My name is Mariko. Welcome to a lecture by Mako Oshidori. As we all know, the Japanese people experienced the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. A huge earthquake, followed by tsunami and the nuclear accident, has become an unprecedented disaster for the Japanese as well as the rest of the world. Moreover, this accident is not only out of control but continues to be in critical state.
As you may be aware, the issue of anti-nuclear power p…

Radiation Testing of Canned Salmon Caught in the North Pacific Ocean Before and After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Below are the results of radiation testing on canned salmon produced by an American seafood company, Vital Choice Wild Seafood and Organics. (Here is the Japanese article).

Becquerel (Bq) is a unit of radioactivity: 1 Bq means "one disintegration event per second."
Picocurie (pCi) is a unit of radioactivity: 1 pCi = 0.037 Bq

In this citizen-driven project, Pacific salmon cans from a U.S. seafood company, Vital Choice Wild Seafood and Organics, underwent radiation testing by citizen labs in Japan. Salmon cans before and after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident (2009, 2011, 2012, 2014) were analyzed for 4 radionuclides: Cesium-134, Cesium-137, Strontium-90 and Tritium.A very small amount of Cesium-137 was detected in all 4 samples, mostly due to background Cesium-137 ("legacy Cesium-137) from nuclear weapons testing.The 2011 sample canned in August 2011 had a slightly higher level of Cesium-137 than the other 3 samples, and the difference of about 0.02 Bq/kg m…